Adley Rutschman

Rutschman's 2023-25 Performance and Hall-of-Fame Trajectory Likelihood

About Adley Rutschman

Figure 1: Adley Rutschman.


Adley Rutschman, (born February 6, 1998), is an American professional baseball catcher for the Baltimore Orioles, known as a two-time All-Star and key leader in the team's rebuilding era. Selected first overall in the 2019 MLB Draft, he debuted in 2022 and is recognized for his switch-hitting ability and strong defensive skills.

Rutschman has been a cornerstone for the Orioles, helping lead them to contention and becoming a face of the franchise.

Recently, there has been much online discourse about Rutschman’s likelihood to be a Hall-Of-Fame player. Taking a dive into his important stats as a catcher and rankings compared to decades of other MLB players, we will see how good his chances are and what he needs to improve on.

Figure 3: Adley's #1 BAA rank.

What do JAWS and WAR measure? And what is WAR/162?:

WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in baseball stats measures a player's total value to their team in a single number, representing how many more wins they contribute compared to a hypothetical "replacement-level player.”

JAWS is a specific application of WAR, designed to measure Hall of Fame worthiness, while WAR itself is the underlying metric for a player's overall contribution (hitting, fielding, baserunning) compared to a replacement-level player.

WAR/162, the stat that actually determines player ranks (all time), represents a player's Wins Above Replacement value scaled to a full, 162-game season.

How are JAWS and WAR scored?:

WAR (Wins Above Replacement) isn't scored "out of" a specific number but measures a player's total contribution in wins compared to a replacement-level player, while JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) uses WAR to evaluate Hall of Fame potential by averaging a player's career WAR and their WAR from their best seven seasons (WAR7). Think of WAR as a raw value, and JAWS as a benchmark comparing that value to Hall of Famers at the same position.


Figure 3: Adley's #1 BAA rank.





What does Blocks Above Average measure (BAA)?:

Blocks Above Average (BAA) quantifies catchers’ ability to prevent passed balls (PBs) and wild pitches (WPs) by blocking pitches that would otherwise get past them, saving runs and impacting the game defensively, though its total run value might be lower than offensive stats like OPS. It's considered a key component of modern defensive analysis, moving beyond subjective scouting to objective measurement using Statcast data.

What does this context tell us about Adley Rutschman's career:

Given his standings against other catchers that have become hall of farmers and his strength at blocking wild pitches and dirt balls, Rutschman is not only a contender for one of the greatest modern catchers, but is likely to be a Hall of Fame player by the end of his career.

If being a Hall of Fame Player is Rutschman’s end goal, then he can most improve his chances of it by:

HITTING: His bat speed, Hard hit %, and exit velocity speed stats on every season have incredibly low scores compared to the league averages every year. If he can improve his hitting, his contributions to his team’s wins will undoubtedly increase.

SPEED: Even in his greatest season, his running speed when he gets on base is only in the 31st percentile. This limits his ability to steal bases and convert small errors into extra runs for the Orioles.

CATCHING BASE RUNNERS: His CS score, his ability to throw out runners trying to steal a base, has a consistently lower rate than an average catcher. He is typically in the bottom percentile here, and this means he gives his team less leeway to block crucial runs.

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